Recently, Kevin Kelly, a science and technology business prophet, has been sharing for 3 hours at Stanford University, the next 20 years. It is 20 years to prove his major business technology trends. Today, everyone will come together to see what the future is Kind.
Kevin Kelly referred to “destructive innovation” as the concept mentioned in Professor Christensen’s famous book The Innovator’s Dilemma, which tells us that innovation is in a successful subject. How hard it is to happen.
For start-up companies with destructive technology, they have been struggling, the quality of work is very low, the risk is extremely high, the profit is extremely low, the market is extremely small, and the business model has not been valued. Rational businessmen will not do this. Kind of business.
So why are only startups and small businesses going to do these innovations? Because they have no choice. A very, very scary fact is that most startups are ultimately finished!
In addition, for destructive innovators, he encouraged: If we crossed into the 1980s and told people at that time, you will have Wikipedia in 30 years, there will be all kinds of cool technologies today, no one will believe. Looking forward to the next 20 years, it is also unimaginable today. The only thing I know is that the greatest product 20 years later has not been invented yet, and as an entrepreneur, you have to invent these things! Although high-tech companies such as Google are so powerful and successful, I just want to say that it is not too late for you to start now, and what has happened now is nothing at all.
For the future, Kevin Kelly believes that in the next two decades, the copper era will enter the oxygen era, that is, the information transmission medium is no longer a cable or a chip. The total amount of information we transmit over the wireless network will exceed that through the wired network. The total amount of information to be transmitted.
In addition, in Kevin Kelly’s view, the areas that are most likely to have destructive innovation and subversion in the future are in the following areas:
from the copper era to the oxygen era.
The first fact I want to say is that the fastest growing thing in the world is not matter, but information. It is faster than all of our bio-capacity and human productivity. To what extent is the amount of information in the world? Need to use 16 times to 276 to describe. The length of the cable created by humans per second has exceeded the speed of sound. These are called information explosions, and the rate of information expansion is the same as the speed of the atomic bomb. And this is a long-lasting explosion, far from a moment.
Different business eras use different media to deliver information. The early days were copper, because people used cable to transmit; then into the era of silicon, silicon was made into chips. I think the next era is the era of oxygen. In the near future, the total amount of information we transmit over the wireless network will exceed the total amount of information transmitted over the wired network.
Personal data is the future of the future. There is still a trend: today, a lot of data is transmitted between the continents through submarine cables, which is a transmission between geographical locations. However, in the future, much of the data will be left for local processing, and even the total amount of information processed per household may be larger than the total amount of data left in the local area.
On the other level, each of us generates a lot of data every day. In the era of broadcasting, the number of viewers is a large order, which is touched by broadcasters. In the Internet era, blogs and social media have emerged. You have become a radio station, you can have many audiences, but the amount of information you pass is relatively high. Less, far less than the broadcast station; later appeared in the WeChat circle of friends, passed to a relatively small audience, but the total amount of information is very large. I think the future is the era when everyone passes their information.
By 2020, more than two-thirds of the information will not exceed one kilometer. So, like WiFi, Bluetooth technology, etc., although not a telecommunications-grade technology, it is not very serious, the profit is very low, the market is small, and there are many problems, but is it not possible to subvert the future?
The ability to intervene in the network is more important than ownership
Another disruptive technology is cloud technology. In a group of 500 people, the amount of information is 500 square meters; the amount of information of another group of 500 people is also 500 square meters. If the two groups are networked, the amount of data on the order of 1000 square feet can be generated, much larger than the square of two 500 squares. Traditionally, expanding a network is as simple as connecting these small networks into a larger network. The growth brought about by expanding the scale of the network is a geometric multiple. So, there is a big cloud that is worth more than the way you spread it into many smaller networks.
From this Internet point of view, the more people there are, the cost of providing each customer is infinitely close to zero, you can basically provide a free service. With the continuous development of cloud technology, the ability to intervene in the network is more important than the ownership that is actually owned. Since property rights are the foundation of capitalism, now we are subverting ownership and it is a very important thing for capitalism.
All business is data business
No matter what industry you are doing now, the business you do is a data business. Your data about your customers is actually as important to your customers as you are. Data can be streamed through the network, from one format to another. Data should not be defined by its storage and should be defined by its flow.
In the data age of the past, we used files, folders, and desktops. After entering the Internet era, data appears on web pages and links. Today we use the cloud to compare data with labels and streams. For now, folders and web pages are not the most important data. Everything is in our data stream, with information and news. The key word of the past is me. The current key words are us; the past keywords are projects, and the current key words are data. We are in the first day of the new era of the Internet, and this is the most important thing at this moment. Next we need to understand how to quantify ourselves. I have been involved in such projects and data some of our own information.
Now just sharing the early days of the era
One topic that is hot today is the ubiquitous camera monitoring. However, the Internet always wants to monitor and collect data, and it is difficult for us to stop this trend. We have a camera on every mobile phone, which means there are 6 billion cameras in the world. The prosperity of social media makes us always report our position.
Personalization and transparency are positively related. If you completely hide yourself and don’t share any data with others, your personalization is zero. If you want to be a person with personality, you must present your own data to the outside and convey your message.
We are still in the era of tradition and cutting-edge. Many people say: I will not share my medical data, financial data, and share my sexual life with others. But these are just your current views. I think that people will share this data in the future, and we are still in the early days of sharing.
Augmented reality, new interactive interfaces and visual tracking
Everyone knows about Google Glass, and now wearable smart contact lenses can be attached directly to your cornea. Wear ables are more than just glasses, they can turn into clothes. We use it to receive data, and we are also passing data and interacting with it through various frictions. We also made a wearable vest for the blind, with a camera on it, you can see the front, and tell the blind how to go by vibration.
The new interactive interface, which I demonstrated in the Minority Report. When Tom Cruises was working on a computer, it wasn’t like typing a keyboard like us, but it was used all the time to interact with a machine. Every part of our body should be able to operate a computer. If I want to make another sci-fi movie, I will never let the movie protagonist use the keyboard to operate the computer. I will let him make some gestures and it seems to be working.
There is also visual tracking. It will track where your eyes look and know what you are looking at. Through visual tracking, we can also capture his emotions, use these techniques to track his eye, see what changes he is looking at, and change our content accordingly. The result is that when we look at the screen, it is actually watching us. We can then modify our work based on such feedback.
Voice technology is far more than Apple’s SIRI technology, such as translation. There is a real-time translation tool, the screen is in Spanish, and it becomes English when displayed. This is an idea of our last interpersonal interaction. Except for the above, he is a helmet. You bring it to your head and it will capture your thoughts. You can manipulate the computer through your thoughts.
Where is the focus , where is the money?
The economy is a subversive area, where is the focus, where is the money. A new business model is that we should have the right to make ourselves a media and put ads on ourselves to make money. For example, some blogs will have an advertisement below, which looks pretty cool, not like an advertisement, but the blogger can get the money. In addition, people should be able to make money by making advertising on their own. There are advertisements that consumers directly participate in, direct advertising, and then become a socialized advertisement through their social media. This completely overturned the advertising industry.
Long-distance images and video Technology
Long-distance images are also a disruptive area, such as teleconferencing and telemedicine. Oculus is a virtual reality company that Facebook just acquired. I tried their products and it feels very good. It is a full immersion experience, very real. Facebook spent $1 billion to acquire the company.
In addition to this there are various screens, including a foldable screen. The screen of the future is not just a hard piece. We can even make the screen the same as the book. It can be flipped, folded, and the content inside is variable. There are also some screenless displays, such as holograms. Holographic technology is not perfect now, but it may also subvert us in the future. We are not reading people now, but people who read screens. There are all kinds of logic in the screen.
One of the great subversions that 3D printing has brought to us is that what you used to think of as hardware will become software in the future. The 3D printed thing is actually a drawing, which can be changed and transmitted, modified, and formed by data. Well, this is just like the various Internet devices we are talking about now. It is also a chip. Americans have an expectation to use 3D printing technology to re-make manufacturing to the United States, but there is also a saying. China is now the leader of 3D printing.
Artificial intelligence is a buyable smart
Artificial intelligence is a service you can pay for. Companies that use artificial intelligence to start a business need to apply artificial intelligence to a specific area to increase their intelligence. For example, a driver less car is actually putting the wisdom of artificial intelligence into the car. Its emergence will affect traffic conditions, people in industries such as express delivery and the driver industry. The real revolution is that these cars will become your new office in the future, and the data you receive in the future will be more than the data you receive in the office building.
Electronic money is a kind of exchange of
Money is important, but money is now an exchange. All areas of the same nature of communication, such as sharing, cooperation, tracking, broadcasting, elaboration or identification, are of an exchange nature. There is an encrypted currency called bitcoin, which means that this communication is also encrypted. Bitcoin is an encrypted currency, but it is not an invisible currency. The transactions generated by electronic money are the same as communication, which can be tracked. It is actually an exchange. So the subversion that Bitcoin really brings is a feeling of communication, and this kind of communication produces the same value as money.
The revolution in equity crowdfunding
TheUnited States now has 450 crowdfunding platforms, which have produced some very successful projects. It has now become a big business, and a lot of money has flooded into this field. Many people use this crowdfunding website not for financing, but to use this thing to do market research and see if their business plan will be popular. Recently, crowdfunding equity has been recognized, this is a very big revolution